Цветом отмечено текущее положение для экономики РФ
phase
|
Initial Recovery
|
Early Upswing
|
Late Upswing
|
Slowdown
|
Recession
|
Term
|
few months
|
1 or more years.
(more if slow growth and slow close output gap)
|
? trying to soft landing
|
few months till 2 years
|
6 months till 1 year
|
b/confidence
|
rising
|
high (inventory buildup, high capacity use)
|
high.
boom mentality
|
start to waver.
inventory correction starts
|
decline. cut investments, cut inventories
|
c/confidence
|
flat
|
rising (or high)
|
high.
boom mentality
|
drops
|
decline.
big-ticket decline
|
unemployment
|
high as in previous phase
|
start to fall
|
bottom, can be shortage
|
rise quickly
| |
gov. policy
|
(stimulatory) budget deficit
|
?
|
restrictive
| ||
Central bank
|
(stimulatory)
lower rates
|
withdraw stimulus
|
restrictive.
|
ease policy after 6 months confirmed
| |
Inflation
|
falling
|
low.
not a problem till end
|
rising
|
continue to rise
|
peaks and then falling
|
output gap
|
large as in previous phase
|
close at the end
|
closed and can be overheated
| ||
gdp
|
slow growth
|
high growth
|
high growth
|
declines
| |
equity
|
strong growth
|
trending up
|
rise nervous. volatile.
stocks on top
|
fall.
utilities and banks performing best.
|
major bankruptcies.
Bottoming and at end starts to rise.
|
cyclical and riskier assets
|
perform well
| ||||
consumer credits
|
expand
| ||||
corporate profits
|
rise rapidly
|
drops sharply
| |||
interest rates
|
s-rates low or declining.
l-rates bottoming.
g-bonds down or flat
|
s-rates up, l-rates flat, stable
|
l-rates up in changed expectations.
at and all rising.
|
s-rates rising first an may peak at end.
l-rates peaking and may down sharply.
y-curve flat or inverts at end
|
s-rates drop at end. l-rates drop at end.
|
Получается, что сейчас находимся в начале инишиал рекавери. А Набиуллину как раз ругают за неуместную политику для текущей экономической ситуации.
Но когда она разберется с банками-зомби, да снизит инфляцию до 4%, вот тогда наверное и начнут изинг и экономика заколосится. А може и раньше без всякого изинга.