Срез цикла

Почитал про циклы в учебнике. Вот такая картина получилась.
Цветом отмечено текущее положение для экономики РФ

phase	Initial Recovery	Early Upswing	Late Upswing	Slowdown	Recession
Term	few months	1 or more years. (more if slow growth and slow close output gap)	? trying to soft landing	few months till 2 years	6 months till 1 year
b/confidence	rising	high (inventory buildup, high capacity use)	high. boom mentality	start to waver. inventory correction starts	decline. cut investments, cut inventories
c/confidence	flat	rising (or high)	high. boom mentality	drops	decline. big-ticket decline
unemployment	high as in previous phase	start to fall	bottom, can be shortage		rise quickly
gov. policy	(stimulatory) budget deficit	?	restrictive
Central bank	(stimulatory) lower rates	withdraw stimulus	restrictive.		ease policy after 6 months confirmed
Inflation	falling	low. not a problem till end	rising	continue to rise	peaks and then falling
output gap	large as in previous phase	close at the end	closed and can be overheated
gdp	slow growth	high growth	high growth		declines
equity	strong growth	trending up	rise nervous. volatile. stocks on top	fall. utilities and banks performing best.	major bankruptcies. Bottoming and at end starts to rise.
cyclical and riskier assets	perform well
consumer credits		expand
corporate profits		rise rapidly			drops sharply
interest rates	s-rates low or declining. l-rates bottoming. g-bonds down or flat	s-rates up, l-rates flat, stable	l-rates up in changed expectations. at and all rising.	s-rates rising first an may peak at end. l-rates peaking and may down sharply. y-curve flat or inverts at end	s-rates drop at end. l-rates drop at end.

Получается, что сейчас находимся в начале инишиал рекавери. А Набиуллину как раз ругают за неуместную политику для текущей экономической ситуации.

Но когда она разберется с банками-зомби, да снизит инфляцию до 4%, вот тогда наверное и начнут изинг и экономика заколосится. А може и раньше без всякого изинга.