пятница, 24 февраля 2017 г.

Срез цикла

Почитал про циклы в учебнике. Вот такая картина получилась.
Цветом отмечено текущее положение для экономики РФ


phase
Initial Recovery
Early Upswing
Late Upswing
Slowdown
Recession
Term
few months
1 or more years.
(more if slow growth and slow close output gap)
? trying to soft landing
few months till 2 years
6 months till 1 year
b/confidence
rising
high (inventory buildup, high capacity use)
high.
boom mentality
start to waver.
inventory correction starts
decline. cut investments, cut inventories
c/confidence
flat
rising (or high)
high.
boom mentality
drops
decline.
big-ticket decline
unemployment
high as in previous phase
start to fall
bottom, can be shortage

rise quickly
gov. policy
(stimulatory) budget deficit
?
restrictive


Central bank
(stimulatory)
lower rates
withdraw stimulus
restrictive.

ease policy after 6 months confirmed
Inflation
falling
low.
not a problem till end
rising
continue to rise
peaks and then falling
output gap
large as in previous phase
close at the end
closed and can be overheated


gdp
slow growth
high growth
high growth

declines
equity
strong growth
trending up
rise nervous. volatile.
stocks on top
fall.
utilities and banks performing best.
major bankruptcies.
Bottoming and at end starts to rise.
cyclical and riskier assets
perform well




consumer credits

expand



corporate profits

rise rapidly


drops sharply
interest rates
s-rates low or declining.
l-rates bottoming.
g-bonds down or flat
s-rates up, l-rates flat, stable
l-rates up in changed expectations.
at and all rising.
s-rates rising first an may peak at end.
l-rates peaking and may down sharply.
y-curve flat or inverts at end
s-rates drop at end. l-rates drop at end.
Получается, что сейчас находимся в начале инишиал рекавери. А Набиуллину как раз ругают за неуместную политику для текущей экономической ситуации.
Но когда она разберется с банками-зомби, да снизит инфляцию до 4%, вот тогда наверное и начнут изинг и экономика заколосится. А може и раньше без всякого изинга.